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14 articles

Electric vehicles charging at a futuristic station, with a line graph showing market share growth.
Climate & WeatherApr 28, 20263 min read

My Take: Why Kalshi Gives EVs an 86% Shot at 10%+ Market Share by 2030

Kalshi bettors are giving an 86% chance to EVs capturing over 10% of the market by 2030, but I'm looking at the nuances behind that seemingly confident number.

Odds:Yes 85%No 15%
A vibrant green European Union flag with wind turbines and solar panels in the background, symbolizing climate goals.
Climate & WeatherApr 22, 20263 min read

EU Climate Goals: Are We Underestimating Europe's Resolve?

Kalshi traders are leaning 'No' on the EU hitting its 2030 climate goals, and I'm here to tell you why I think that's a mistake.

Odds:Yes 42%No 58%
A stylized graph showing global primary energy consumption by source, with fossil fuels as dominant large bars and renewables as smaller, growing bars projected to 2030 and beyond.
Climate & WeatherApr 17, 20264 min read

2030 Energy King: Why Kalshi Bettors Are Doubting Renewables

Kalshi traders are giving a mere 15% chance for a non-fossil fuel to be the world's largest energy source by 2030, and my analysis suggests they're probably right.

Odds:Yes 12%No 88%
Image for US Climate Goals by 2030: Is the Market Too Cynical at 22% YES?
Climate & WeatherApr 11, 20263 min read

US Climate Goals by 2030: Is the Market Too Cynical at 22% YES?

I've been staring at the Kalshi market for the US meeting its 2030 climate goals, and my gut tells me the 22% 'YES' price might be a bit too pessimistic.

Odds:Yes 15%No 85%
A digital radar screen with strange, unidentifiable symbols or patterns, overlayed with the Kalshi logo, hinting at a weather mystery.
Climate & WeatherMar 28, 20263 min read

Kalshi's Climate-Hockey Mystery: A 0% Market with Zero Answers

I stumbled across a Kalshi market today with a 0% YES price and zero volume, but it's the bizarre question and category that truly baffled me.

A stylized map of India with climate-related icons like wind turbines, solar panels, and factories, illustrating the nation's energy transition challenges and goals.
Climate & WeatherMar 26, 20263 min read

India's Climate Pledge: Is 64% YES Too Confident?

Kalshi bettors are giving India a 64% chance of meeting its 2030 climate goals, but I’m wondering if that optimism is truly warranted.

Odds:Yes 64%No 36%
An electric car charging at a futuristic station, with a globe in the background showing rapid EV adoption in major regions by 2030.
Climate & WeatherMar 26, 20263 min read

Is the EV Market Seriously Underrating 2030's Electric Surge?

Kalshi traders are giving EV market share above 50% in 2030 just a 20% shot, and frankly, I think they might be missing the whole damn picture.

Odds:Yes 20%No 80%
A sleek electric vehicle charging at a station, with a digital display showing future market share projections in the background.
Climate & WeatherMar 26, 20263 min read

EVs in 2030: Is the Market Underpricing a Sure Bet?

I'm looking at Kalshi's EV market share question for 2030, and the 71% YES price for 'above 20%' feels like a fascinating point of contention.

Odds:Yes 69%No 31%
Image for Kalshi's Stark Reality: 79% Chance of 2°C Warming by 2050
Climate & WeatherMar 26, 20263 min read

Kalshi's Stark Reality: 79% Chance of 2°C Warming by 2050

Kalshi traders are giving a chilling 79% chance that the world will pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050, and I find it hard to argue with.

Odds:Yes 75%No 25%
A sleek, modern electric vehicle charging at a station with a futuristic city skyline in the background, symbolizing the growth of EV market share.
Climate & WeatherMar 26, 20263 min read

Will EVs Own 30% of the Market by 2030? Kalshi Says Maybe, I Say Probably

Kalshi bettors are giving EVs a coin flip's chance to hit 30%+ market share by 2030, but I think they might be underestimating the coming surge.

Odds:Yes 52%No 48%
A stylized map of California with fault lines prominently displayed, perhaps with a subtle tremor effect, and a large '8.0' magnitude symbol appearing over the state.
Climate & WeatherMar 26, 20263 min read

The Big One's Price Tag: Is 36% Too High for a California 8.0?

I'm looking at Kalshi's 'California 8.0 earthquake before 2035' market, and I have to say, the 36% YES price has me scratching my head.

Odds:Yes 28%No 72%
Image for Oil's Throne in 2030: Is The 44% 'Yes' Price Too Low?
Climate & WeatherMar 26, 20264 min read

Oil's Throne in 2030: Is The 44% 'Yes' Price Too Low?

The market is giving oil less than even odds to remain the largest global energy source by 2030, and I'm genuinely surprised by how quickly the smart money is betting against its reign.

Odds:Yes 39%No 61%
Image for Japan's Next Big One: Is 53% Too Low for an 8.0 Magnitude Quake?
Climate & WeatherMar 26, 20263 min read

Japan's Next Big One: Is 53% Too Low for an 8.0 Magnitude Quake?

I'm looking at the market for an 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030, and the current 53% YES price feels surprisingly conservative to me.

Odds:Yes 50%No 50%
A stylized, slightly ominous illustration of a plume of ash rising from a mountain, with a faint digital overlay suggesting market data trends
Climate & WeatherMar 26, 20263 min read

My Take: Are We Seriously Betting on a Supervolcano by 2050?

Kalshi traders are giving a supervolcano eruption before 2050 a 28% chance, and honestly, I'm scratching my head a bit at that number.

Odds:Yes 23%No 77%