📊Economics
Fed, inflation, GDP, jobs
12 articles
Unemployment by 2030: Is a 21% Chance of Trouble Too Low?
I'm looking at a fascinating Kalshi market today that puts the odds of higher unemployment before 2030 at just 21% – and I think that's a seriously low number.
Airtable IPO by 2028? Why 17% Feels Way Too Low to Me
The Kalshi market on Airtable's IPO announcement by 2028 shows a mere 17% chance, and honestly, I'm scratching my head a bit at that number.
Unemployment Before 2030: Is the Market Too Complacent?
I'm looking at a Kalshi market asking if unemployment will get 'high' before 2030, and the current 23% YES price feels surprisingly low to me.
Unemployment's Next Peak: Are Bettors Too Complacent on 2030?
I've been staring at a Kalshi market asking if unemployment will hit 6% by 2030, and the crowd's confidence in low rates has me raising an eyebrow.
Will Unemployment Spike Before 2030? My Take on Kalshi's Outlook
I'm looking at a fascinating Kalshi market betting on unemployment before 2030, and the current 44% YES price has me thinking.
Why the Market Gives Trump Just an 8% Chance on Manufacturing
I'm looking at a Kalshi market today that's giving Donald Trump just an 8% chance of bringing back manufacturing, and honestly, that number feels about right to me.
Elon Musk Trillionaire by 2029? The Market's Telling Us Something Big
Kalshi traders are giving Elon Musk an 80% shot at reaching a trillion-dollar net worth before 2029, and I think that number is fascinating.
Musk's Trillion-Dollar Climb: Is the Crowd Overly Bullish?
Kalshi bettors are giving Elon Musk an 85% chance of hitting a trillion dollars by 2030, and honestly, I'm scratching my head at that level of conviction.
Elon Musk as a Trillionaire: Is the Crowd Too Bullish by 2028?
Kalshi bettors give Elon Musk a 76% chance of hitting a trillion dollars by 2028, but I'm looking at those odds with a heavy dose of skepticism.
China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 21%
The market is heavily favoring No with 78,163 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.
Who will be the world's first trillionaire?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 87%
The market is heavily favoring Yes with 94,816 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.
When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 69%
The market is heavily favoring Yes with 202,611 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.