📊Economics
Fed, inflation, GDP, jobs
24 articles
Is the Crowd Too Bearish on 2029 GDP? Just 12% Say YES to 2.6-3.0%
Kalshi traders are giving the US economy a mere 12% chance of hitting 2.6-3.0% GDP growth in 2029, and I think that might be an overly pessimistic bet.
Why the Market is Betting Against Robust 2030 GDP Growth
I'm looking at the Kalshi market for 2030 GDP, and the crowd's 12% confidence in a 2.6% to 3.0% growth rate feels incredibly low to me.
A Decade Out: Is a Zero-Growth 2030 Really Just 11% Likely?
I'm looking at Kalshi's market on 2030 GDP growth, and the crowd's 11% chance for zero or negative expansion feels shockingly low to me.
2029 GDP Growth: Why is the market so bearish on a normal range?
I'm genuinely scratching my head at the market's anemic 12% confidence in a perfectly reasonable 2.1-2.5% GDP growth for 2029.
Could KaiCenat Really Hit Billionaire Status by 2030? My Take.
Only 7% of Kalshi bettors think KaiCenat will become a billionaire before 2030, and honestly, I think they might be onto something.
A 91% Bet on High Unemployment: Are Kalshi Bettors Seeing Red?
Kalshi traders are almost certain unemployment will get 'high' by 2030, and I can't help but wonder if they're right to be so confident.
Airtable IPO by 2029: The Market's Skepticism and My Contrarian Take
Prediction markets give Airtable only a 35% chance of announcing an IPO by 2029, and I think the crowd might be too pessimistic.
Unemployment's Long Shadow: Why 85% Predicts a 5.5% Peak
I've been watching this Kalshi market on unemployment and the 85% 'Yes' price is screaming a message I think many of us need to hear.
Unemployment Before 2030: Why 60% YES Might Still Be Underpriced
Prediction markets are giving unemployment a 60% chance of hitting an elevated level before 2030, and I think that number might be a steal.
Is 3% Too Low for a Decade of Unemployment Risk?
I'm staring at a Kalshi market right now, and frankly, its 3% 'YES' price for high unemployment before 2030 is making me scratch my head.
Unemployment's Looming Peak: Why Kalshi Traders Are Betting Big on Bad News
Kalshi traders are giving a 75% chance that unemployment will hit 'high' levels before 2030, and I've got some thoughts on why that number feels so weighty.
Unemployment to 6.5% by 2030? The Market Says 18% – I'm Not So Sure.
Kalshi bettors are giving just an 18% chance to unemployment hitting 6.5% before 2030, and honestly, I find that number surprisingly low given the long timeline.
Unemployment by 2030: Is a 21% Chance of Trouble Too Low?
I'm looking at a fascinating Kalshi market today that puts the odds of higher unemployment before 2030 at just 21% – and I think that's a seriously low number.
Airtable IPO by 2028? Why 17% Feels Way Too Low to Me
The Kalshi market on Airtable's IPO announcement by 2028 shows a mere 17% chance, and honestly, I'm scratching my head a bit at that number.
Unemployment Before 2030: Is the Market Too Complacent?
I'm looking at a Kalshi market asking if unemployment will get 'high' before 2030, and the current 23% YES price feels surprisingly low to me.
Unemployment's Next Peak: Are Bettors Too Complacent on 2030?
I've been staring at a Kalshi market asking if unemployment will hit 6% by 2030, and the crowd's confidence in low rates has me raising an eyebrow.
Will Unemployment Spike Before 2030? My Take on Kalshi's Outlook
I'm looking at a fascinating Kalshi market betting on unemployment before 2030, and the current 44% YES price has me thinking.
Why the Market Gives Trump Just an 8% Chance on Manufacturing
I'm looking at a Kalshi market today that's giving Donald Trump just an 8% chance of bringing back manufacturing, and honestly, that number feels about right to me.
Elon Musk Trillionaire by 2029? The Market's Telling Us Something Big
Kalshi traders are giving Elon Musk an 80% shot at reaching a trillion-dollar net worth before 2029, and I think that number is fascinating.
Musk's Trillion-Dollar Climb: Is the Crowd Overly Bullish?
Kalshi bettors are giving Elon Musk an 85% chance of hitting a trillion dollars by 2030, and honestly, I'm scratching my head at that level of conviction.
Elon Musk as a Trillionaire: Is the Crowd Too Bullish by 2028?
Kalshi bettors give Elon Musk a 76% chance of hitting a trillion dollars by 2028, but I'm looking at those odds with a heavy dose of skepticism.
China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 21%
The market is heavily favoring No with 78,163 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.
Who will be the world's first trillionaire?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 87%
The market is heavily favoring Yes with 94,816 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.
When will Elon Musk become a trillionaire?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 69%
The market is heavily favoring Yes with 202,611 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.