🏛️Politics
Elections, policy, government decisions
7 articles
The Zero-Sum Game of Improbability: Kalshi's Ghost Market
A Kalshi market on a complex NBA parlay registers a definitive 0% chance, highlighting the cold, hard logic of prediction markets.
A Parlay to Nowhere: Kalshi Market Scores 0% Chance on Basketball Fantasy
A Kalshi market ostensibly about basketball player statistics, oddly categorized under 'politics,' registers a unanimous 0% chance of resolution, drawing zero trading interest.
Kalshi Traders Put 95% Odds on $40 Trillion US Debt Under Trump
Kalshi traders are betting heavily that the US national debt will breach the $40 trillion mark during a potential Trump administration, pricing the 'Yes' outcome at a staggering 95%.
Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 20%
The market is heavily favoring No with 43,696 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.
Which party will win the next UK general election?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 10%
The market is heavily favoring No with 57,626 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 24%
The market is heavily favoring No with 94,898 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 11%
The market is heavily favoring No with 120,885 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.