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🏛️Politics

Elections, policy, government decisions

39 articles

Kylie Kelce, Travis Kelce, and Taylor Swift smiling together at a football game, with a subtle wedding theme overlay
PoliticsMay 10, 20264 min read

Kylie Kelce as Bridesmaid? The Market's 62% YES Price Feels High to Me

Kalshi traders are giving Kylie Kelce a 62% chance of being a bridesmaid at Taylor Swift's wedding, but I'm not so sure the crowd has this one right.

Odds:Yes 62%No 38%
A portrait of Li Qiang, the current Premier of China, in a professional setting.
PoliticsMay 10, 20264 min read

Li Qiang to Lead China by 2045? The Market's 17% Chance Feels High

Kalshi's market on Li Qiang becoming China's next leader by 2045 is pricing a 17% chance, but I'm struggling to see why it's so optimistic.

Odds:Yes 13%No 87%
A map of the world highlighting regions where wild polio is still endemic, with vaccination campaign imagery subtly in the background.
PoliticsMay 8, 20264 min read

The Wild Polio Eradication Bet: Is 10% Too Low for Humanity's Win?

I'm looking at Kalshi's 'zero wild polio before 2030' market, and the crowd's 10% 'YES' price has me raising an eyebrow—it feels surprisingly low.

Odds:Yes 10%No 90%
A map highlighting Taiwan, with a U.S. State Department travel warning icon superimposed, reflecting the serious nature of a Level 4 advisory.
PoliticsMay 7, 20264 min read

Is a US 'Do Not Travel' Warning for Taiwan Nearly a Coin Flip?

I'm looking at Kalshi's Taiwan market, where bettors are giving a 47% chance of a Level 4 travel warning by 2029, and I have to admit, that number gives me pause.

Odds:Yes 46%No 54%
Image for Mahomes in the Wedding Party? Prediction Markets Say 86% YES, But I'm Skeptical
PoliticsMay 5, 20264 min read

Mahomes in the Wedding Party? Prediction Markets Say 86% YES, But I'm Skeptical

Prediction markets are giving Patrick Mahomes an 86% chance of being a groomsman for Travis Kelce's wedding to Taylor Swift, but I'm looking at that number with a raised eyebrow.

Odds:Yes 86%No 14%
A split image showing the Houses of Parliament in London and an outline of a person walking away from a podium, symbolizing departure from office.
PoliticsMay 4, 20263 min read

UK Prime Minister: The Frontrunner for the First Exit?

My eyes are glued to a fascinating Kalshi market where bettors are giving the UK Prime Minister a 73% chance of being the first major leader to leave office.

Odds:Yes 73%No 27%
A close-up of Time magazine's iconic red border with a blurred image of a person in the background, suggesting the Person of the Decade issue.
PoliticsMay 2, 20263 min read

Time's Person of the Decade: Is the Crowd Wildly Underpricing a Sure Bet?

I'm looking at Kalshi's 'Person of the Decade' market, and I can't shake the feeling the crowd is dramatically underpricing a very strong contender – or at least the probability of one emerging.

Odds:Yes 30%No 70%
Illustration of a massive pile of money or a graph showing rapidly increasing national debt, with a presidential seal in the background.
PoliticsMay 2, 20263 min read

Is a $50 Trillion National Debt Under Trump More Likely Than We Think?

I'm looking at a Kalshi market betting on the national debt hitting $50 trillion by 2029, and the current 45% 'Yes' price feels surprisingly low to me.

Odds:Yes 46%No 54%
A map showing Taiwan and surrounding waters, possibly with a subtle overlay indicating geopolitical tension or travel advisory symbols.
PoliticsApr 29, 20264 min read

A Razor's Edge: Is a Level 4 Taiwan Warning Really a Coin Flip?

I'm looking at the Kalshi market predicting a U.S. Level 4 travel warning for Taiwan, and the 51% 'Yes' has me raising an eyebrow.

Odds:Yes 47%No 53%
A stylized image of the UK Parliament building with a small green leaf subtly integrated into the architecture or background, symbolizing the Green Party's presence in UK politics.
PoliticsApr 29, 20263 min read

Green Party's 10% UK Election Chance: A Long Shot or a Long Game?

I'm scratching my head over the 10% chance Kalshi bettors are giving the Green Party to win the next UK election by 2029.

Odds:Yes 10%No 90%
Taylor Swift and Gigi Hadid smiling together at a public event, suggesting their close friendship.
PoliticsApr 27, 20263 min read

Gigi Hadid as a Bridesmaid? Kalshi Thinks It's Likely, I'm Less Sure.

Kalshi bettors are giving Gigi Hadid a 58% chance of being a bridesmaid for Taylor Swift, and I've got some thoughts on whether that's a good bet.

Odds:Yes 58%No 42%
A split image showing Andy Burnham's face on one side and the exterior of 10 Downing Street on the other, with a question mark in between
PoliticsApr 26, 20263 min read

Andy Burnham for PM: Is 20% a Hope Bet or a Real Possibility by 2030?

I'm genuinely intrigued by the Kalshi market giving Andy Burnham a 20% chance to be the next UK Prime Minister, especially with a 2030 expiry.

Odds:Yes 19%No 81%
Image for Selena as a Bridesmaid? Kalshi Thinks Yes, I'm Not So Sure
PoliticsApr 24, 20263 min read

Selena as a Bridesmaid? Kalshi Thinks Yes, I'm Not So Sure

Kalshi bettors are giving Selena Gomez a 76% chance of being a bridesmaid for Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, but I'm sensing a strong dose of wishful thinking here.

Odds:Yes 72%No 28%
A split image showing the UK Parliament building and a graph with a steep downward trend, representing the low probability of a Conservative win.
PoliticsApr 23, 20264 min read

UK Conservatives: Is 13% a Floor or a Freefall?

I'm looking at the Kalshi market for the next U.K. election, and the 13% chance of a Conservative win has me both nodding and scratching my head.

Odds:Yes 11%No 89%
A stylized image showing the US Capitol building with a split color scheme (blue and red) representing a divided government, and a silhouette of the White House in the background.
PoliticsApr 21, 20263 min read

Is 11% Too Low for This Electoral Triple Threat in 2028?

I'm looking at a fascinating Kalshi market that gives just 11% odds to a very specific split-government outcome in 2028, and I think that might be a steal.

Odds:Yes 10%No 90%
A map highlighting Taiwan, with a stylized 'warning' symbol superimposed, against a backdrop of global geopolitical tension.
PoliticsApr 21, 20264 min read

Taiwan Travel Warning: Is the Market Overpricing Geo-Risk?

I'm looking at Kalshi's Taiwan market, and the odds of a Level 4 State Department warning before 2028 have me seriously questioning the crowd's read on geopolitical risk.

Odds:Yes 32%No 68%
A stylized map of Europe with some countries subtly highlighted, representing potential political shifts
PoliticsApr 18, 20263 min read

Is the Market Underpricing Another EU Exit by 2030?

Kalshi traders give just a 14% chance of another country leaving the EU by 2030, and I’m looking at that number with a healthy dose of skepticism.

Odds:Yes 14%No 86%
A profile shot of Naftali Bennett, perhaps with a blurred Israeli Knesset in the background.
PoliticsApr 18, 20263 min read

Naftali Bennett's 36% Comeback Bid: A Bet on Chaos?

I'm looking at Kalshi's market on Naftali Bennett returning as Israel's PM, and the 36% YES price for someone out of the Knesset is making me wonder what traders are really seeing over the next two decades.

Odds:Yes 29%No 71%
A gavel resting on a stack of legal documents with the Amazon logo subtly in the background.
PoliticsApr 16, 20263 min read

Amazon's Monopoly Bet: The Market's 56% 'Yes' Is Wild

The prediction market is giving Amazon a 56% chance of being found guilty of illegally maintaining a monopoly, and I'm honestly a little surprised by that conviction.

Odds:Yes 55%No 45%
An artistic rendering of a SpaceX Starship landing on the surface of Mars, with a small human figure looking out over the Martian landscape.
PoliticsApr 15, 20263 min read

Mars Before 2030? Kalshi Traders Give It a Staggering 13%

I'm looking at Kalshi's market on a manned Starship mission to Mars before 2030, and the crowd's 13% 'YES' bet tells a fascinating story of ambition versus reality.

Odds:Yes 13%No 87%
Image for 2028 Republican Trifecta: Why 16% Feels Like a Long Shot
PoliticsApr 13, 20264 min read

2028 Republican Trifecta: Why 16% Feels Like a Long Shot

I've been staring at Kalshi's Republican trifecta market for 2028, and while 16% sounds low, I think the crowd might still be overestimating the odds.

Odds:Yes 16%No 84%
A headshot of Ed Miliband with the Houses of Parliament in the background, overlaid with Kalshi market data.
PoliticsApr 12, 20263 min read

Ed Miliband for PM? Bettors Say 10% Chance, I Say 'Hold My Tea'

I'm looking at a Kalshi market giving Ed Miliband a 10% shot at becoming the next UK Prime Minister, and frankly, it's making me scratch my head.

Odds:Yes 10%No 90%
A portrait of Gavin Newsom with a blurred background of the White House, suggesting future ambition.
PoliticsApr 10, 20263 min read

Gavin Newsom for President by 2045: Why Kalshi Says 12% is About Right

I took a deep dive into the Kalshi market asking if Gavin Newsom will be President before 2045, and the 12% YES price tells an interesting story.

Odds:Yes 12%No 88%
A stylized radar screen showing a market graph with a red line representing Wes Streeting's low probability, against a blue background representing the UK parliament
PoliticsApr 10, 20263 min read

Wes Streeting for PM? Why 11% Feels Like a Long, Long Shot (But Still Trading)

I'm looking at Kalshi's market on Wes Streeting becoming the next UK Prime Minister, and at 11%, I can't help but feel the crowd is being very optimistic.

Odds:Yes 11%No 89%
A stylized image of the British Houses of Parliament with a graph overlay showing an upward trend, representing the Reform UK party's potential rise, set against a backdrop of a Kalshi prediction market interface.
PoliticsApr 7, 20264 min read

Reform UK: Is a 36% Chance of Winning the UK Election Too High?

Kalshi traders are giving Reform UK a 36% chance to win the next general election, and honestly, my eyebrows shot up when I saw that number.

Odds:Yes 36%No 64%
An illustration showing three distinct political symbols (e.g., a stylized Capitol dome, a presidential seal, and a House chamber graphic) colored blue, representing a Democratic trifecta.
PoliticsApr 7, 20263 min read

A Democratic Trifecta by 2028? The Odds Feel a Little Rich to Me

Kalshi traders are giving Democrats a 39% chance to control the House, Senate, and Presidency by 2028, and I find that number surprisingly high.

Odds:Yes 39%No 61%
Image for Trump's Budget: Just an 11% Chance? My Take on Kalshi's Dire Odds
PoliticsApr 3, 20263 min read

Trump's Budget: Just an 11% Chance? My Take on Kalshi's Dire Odds

Kalshi bettors give Donald Trump an 11% chance of balancing the budget by 2029, a figure I find telling about the market's deep skepticism.

Odds:Yes 11%No 89%
A vibrant, slightly blurred image of the UK Houses of Parliament at dusk, with digital trading charts overlaid subtly in the foreground, symbolizing prediction markets and political outcomes.
PoliticsApr 3, 20263 min read

Angela Rayner for PM? The Market Says 27%—I'm Raising an Eyebrow

Kalshi traders are giving Angela Rayner a 27% shot at becoming UK Prime Minister by 2030, and I can't help but wonder if that's a bit optimistic.

Odds:Yes 25%No 75%
A stylized radar screen showing a single, static blip with an 'X' through it, symbolizing a non-existent or untraded market, perhaps with a faint basketball graphic and a political elephant silhouette in the background.
PoliticsMar 29, 20264 min read

A Kalshi Market Nobody's Trading: Basketball, Politics, and a Big Zero

I've been watching Kalshi markets for years, but I've never seen anything quite like this one: a sports-themed market listed under "politics" with absolutely zero trading activity.

A baseball player in uniform with a thought bubble above their head showing a political debate stage
PoliticsMar 28, 20263 min read

Baseball Players in Politics? Kalshi's Latest Mystery Market Hits 0%

I stumbled upon a Kalshi market today that pits baseball player names against a 'politics' category, and with 0% YES odds and zero volume, it's a head-scratcher.

A digital radar screen with a market chart showing 0% probability and a question mark icon, set against a blurred background of a basketball court and a political debate
PoliticsMar 27, 20263 min read

The Kalshi Glitch Market: Sports, Politics, and a 0% Mystery

I spotted a Kalshi market today that combines NBA predictions with a 'politics' label and a 0% chance, and it's a fascinating look at what happens when systems go awry.

A chaotic, surreal image depicting a basketball court with a politician giving a speech in the background, a map of cities like Portland and Toronto, and a scoreboard displaying unusual numbers.
PoliticsMar 27, 20263 min read

The Kalshi Market That Breaks My Brain

Today, I stumbled upon a Kalshi market with 0% YES odds and a question so bizarre it makes me question everything I thought I knew about prediction markets.

An empty basketball court with a scoreboard showing a series of complex player statistics and game outcomes, all set to zero or indicating an extremely low probability.
PoliticsMar 26, 20263 min read

The Zero-Sum Game of Improbability: Kalshi's Ghost Market

A Kalshi market on a complex NBA parlay registers a definitive 0% chance, highlighting the cold, hard logic of prediction markets.

A collage of NBA players mentioned in the market question, with a faded image of a high school basketball player (Kon Knueppel) overlaid, signifying the impossibility.
PoliticsMar 26, 20263 min read

A Parlay to Nowhere: Kalshi Market Scores 0% Chance on Basketball Fantasy

A Kalshi market ostensibly about basketball player statistics, oddly categorized under 'politics,' registers a unanimous 0% chance of resolution, drawing zero trading interest.

Kalshi Traders Put 95% Odds on $40 Trillion US Debt Under Trump
PoliticsMar 16, 20262 min read

Kalshi Traders Put 95% Odds on $40 Trillion US Debt Under Trump

Kalshi traders are betting heavily that the US national debt will breach the $40 trillion mark during a potential Trump administration, pricing the 'Yes' outcome at a staggering 95%.

Odds:Yes 95%No 5%
Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 20%
PoliticsMar 16, 20261 min read

Will Alberta vote to secede from Canada?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 20%

The market is heavily favoring No with 43,696 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.

Odds:Yes 20%No 80%
Which party will win the next UK general election?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 10%
PoliticsMar 16, 20261 min read

Which party will win the next UK general election?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 10%

The market is heavily favoring No with 57,626 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.

Odds:Yes 10%No 90%
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 24%
PoliticsMar 16, 20261 min read

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 24%

The market is heavily favoring No with 94,898 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.

Odds:Yes 24%No 76%
Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 11%
PoliticsMar 16, 20261 min read

Who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 11%

The market is heavily favoring No with 120,885 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.

Odds:Yes 11%No 89%