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5 articles

A split image showing the logos of Deel and Rippling, with a stylized finish line in the background, representing a race to IPO.
FinanceMar 26, 20264 min read

Deel vs. Rippling IPO: Why the Crowd Is So Sure About Rippling

Kalshi traders are giving Rippling a massive 74% chance to IPO before Deel, and I’m digging into why the market has such strong conviction on this enterprise software showdown.

Odds:Yes 21%No 79%
Image for My Take on Deel vs. Rippling: The Market is Speaking Loudly, But Is It Right?
FinanceMar 26, 20264 min read

My Take on Deel vs. Rippling: The Market is Speaking Loudly, But Is It Right?

The Kalshi market has a strong opinion on whether Deel or Rippling will IPO first, but I'm looking at the nuances behind the numbers.

Odds:Yes 73%No 27%
Image for Ramp vs. Brex: The Market Is Wildly Confident. Am I?
FinanceMar 26, 20264 min read

Ramp vs. Brex: The Market Is Wildly Confident. Am I?

A Kalshi market betting on whether Ramp or Brex will IPO first is showing an astonishing 85% chance for Ramp, and I'm here to tell you why that number caught my eye.

Odds:Yes 85%No 15%
A stylized graphic showing the logos of OpenAI and Anthropic on a digital racetrack, with one slightly ahead.
FinanceMar 26, 20263 min read

The AI IPO Race: Why OpenAI's 54% Edge Doesn't Convince Me

The market gives OpenAI a 54% chance to IPO before Anthropic, but I'm looking at the fine print on their corporate structures and wondering if the crowd is missing something big.

Odds:Yes 54%No 46%
A stylized image showing two distinct corporate entities, one with a more traditional structure and the other with a complex, layered structure, both aiming for a public market entrance.
FinanceMar 26, 20263 min read

OpenAI vs. Anthropic IPO: My Take on the Dead Heat

Kalshi's market on which AI giant IPOs first is a dead heat, but I think traders might be missing a crucial detail that could sway the outcome.

Odds:Yes 50%No 50%