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14 articles

An illustration of a futuristic nuclear fusion reactor, with plasma glowing brightly at its core, surrounded by complex machinery. Focus on both the scientific wonder and the engineering challenge.
TechApr 20, 20263 min read

Fusion by 2035? My Take on Kalshi's Ambitious Tech Bet

I'm looking at Kalshi's market on nuclear fusion, and while the 48% chance for achievement by 2035 feels bold, I think the crowd might be underestimating the monumental challenges ahead.

Odds:Yes 48%No 52%
A futuristic depiction of a modular nuclear reactor powering a high-tech data center on a secure military base, surrounded by a desert landscape.
TechApr 17, 20263 min read

Nuclear Data Centers: Is 58% 'Yes' Too Low for This Wild Idea?

I'm digging into a fascinating Kalshi market today: Will the US military kick off a nuclear-powered data center project before 2030?

Odds:Yes 51%No 49%
An illustration depicting a futuristic nuclear fusion reactor with energy flowing out, surrounded by a timeline pointing towards 2040.
TechApr 15, 20264 min read

My Take: Is Nuclear Fusion Really 57% Likely by 2040?

I'm looking at the Kalshi market on nuclear fusion, and while the 57% 'YES' price is enticing, my gut says it's a bet fraught with historical challenges.

Odds:Yes 53%No 47%
A split image showing a futuristic high-speed train on one side and an astronaut planting a flag on Mars on the other.
TechApr 14, 20263 min read

Mars Before California HSR? The Market Says No, But I'm Not So Sure.

A Kalshi market betting on human Mars landing versus California's high-speed rail shows a shocking 24% for Mars, and I think that's way too low.

Odds:Yes 24%No 76%
Image for Mars Colony by 2050? The Market Says 19%, I'm Skeptical
TechApr 9, 20263 min read

Mars Colony by 2050? The Market Says 19%, I'm Skeptical

The market gives humanity a 19% chance of colonizing Mars by 2050, but I think the crowd might be underestimating our ambition.

Odds:Yes 16%No 84%
Illustration of a nuclear fusion reactor with plasma glowing brightly
TechApr 8, 20263 min read

Fusion by 2030? Why 36% Feels High, Even After NIF's Breakthrough

I'm looking at Kalshi's 'When will nuclear fusion be achieved?' market, and while NIF's progress is real, 36% by 2030 makes me scratch my head.

Odds:Yes 34%No 66%
An illustration of a lunar lander with a national flag, landing on the Moon's surface with Earth in the background.
TechApr 2, 20263 min read

Kalshi's Lunar Bet: Is 20% YES for a Moon Landing by 2031 Wildly Low?

The Kalshi market on the next crewed Moon landing suggests a shockingly low 20% chance any country makes it by 2031, and I think that's worth a hard look.

Odds:Yes 20%No 80%
An artistic rendering of a human astronaut and a humanoid robot standing side-by-side on the surface of Mars, looking out over a desolate landscape.
TechApr 1, 20263 min read

Mars Robot vs. Human: The 2035 Finish Line Is Closer Than You Think

I'm watching a Kalshi market where bettors are nearly split on whether a humanoid robot will walk on Mars before a human, and my take might surprise you.

Odds:Yes 48%No 52%
A split image showing Boston Celtics players Jayson Tatum and Derrick White on one side, and Oklahoma City Thunder players Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren on the other, with a basketball court background.
TechMar 25, 20263 min read

Kalshi Market Scores Zero: A Basket of Impossibility, Not Wagers

A Kalshi prediction market, bafflingly categorized under 'tech,' stands at a unanimous 0% chance for a complex set of NBA player achievements, with zero trading activity.

A split image showing Kevin Durant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in action on a basketball court, with a younger high school basketball player like Ace Bailey in a separate panel, symbolizing the disparate elements of the prediction market.
TechMar 25, 20263 min read

A Zero-Sum Game: Kalshi Market on NBA Stars and a High School Prospect Goes Untraded

A peculiar Kalshi prediction market, pooling NBA scoring feats with a high school talent, registers a 0% probability and no trading activity, signaling fundamental flaws.

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 59%
TechMar 16, 20261 min read

Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 59%

The market is leaning Yes with 45,213 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.

Odds:Yes 59%No 41%
Courts consider Apple a monopoly?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 29%
TechMar 16, 20261 min read

Courts consider Apple a monopoly?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 29%

The market is heavily favoring No with 46,648 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.

Odds:Yes 29%No 71%
Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 68%
TechMar 16, 20261 min read

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 68%

The market is heavily favoring Yes with 51,859 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.

Odds:Yes 68%No 32%
Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 29%
TechMar 16, 20261 min read

Will SpaceX land anything successfully on Mars before 2030?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 29%

The market is heavily favoring No with 54,193 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.

Odds:Yes 29%No 71%