🌍World
Geopolitics, conflicts
5 articles
CO2 by 2030: Is the Market Seriously Underestimating Climate Momentum?
I'm looking at Kalshi's CO2 market, and the current 38% 'YES' price for rising concentrations before 2030 feels surprisingly low given recent trends.
A 90% Bet on a Bleaker Future: My Take on CO2 Levels
I'm looking at a prediction market that gives a 90% chance of CO2 concentrations getting 'bad' before 2030, and it's a grim, yet entirely rational, reflection of our path.
My Gut Says Kalshi's CO2 Market Is Seriously Underpricing Climate Risk
I'm looking at Kalshi's CO2 market, and the crowd's 14% chance of 'bad' concentrations by 2030 feels wildly optimistic to me.
76% Say EU Will Grow by 2030: Is That Realistic?
The Kalshi market pegs the chance of any country joining the EU by 2030 at 76%, but I'm looking at the bureaucracy and wondering if traders are too optimistic about a quick expansion.
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime?: Kalshi Traders Price It at 10%
The market is heavily favoring No with 55,388 contracts traded. Here's what the data says.