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Image for AGI Before 2027? The Market Says 13% – I'm Not So Sure.
PoliticsMay 29, 2026

AGI Before 2027? The Market Says 13% – I'm Not So Sure.

A Kalshi market gives Artificial General Intelligence a 13% chance of being announced by 2027, and I think that's wildly optimistic.

OddsYes 13%No 87%
Trending
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 13%No 87%Will Marianne Lake succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan?Yes 44%No 56%When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?Yes 74%No 26%Will the FDA approve VERVE-102 before Jan 1, 2035?Yes 81%No 19%What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?Yes 29%No 71%Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?Yes 17%No 83%Will Ethan Holliday play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029?Yes 52%No 48%Where will the next Beyonce album chart?Yes 17%No 83%Will Tom Francis be the next James Bond?Yes 14%No 86%Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?Yes 11%No 89%Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?Yes 13%No 87%Will Marianne Lake succeed Jamie Dimon as CEO of JPMorgan?Yes 44%No 56%When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released?Yes 74%No 26%Will the FDA approve VERVE-102 before Jan 1, 2035?Yes 81%No 19%What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?Yes 29%No 71%Who will Time name as Person of the Decade?Yes 17%No 83%Will Ethan Holliday play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029?Yes 52%No 48%Where will the next Beyonce album chart?Yes 17%No 83%Will Tom Francis be the next James Bond?Yes 14%No 86%Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?Yes 11%No 89%

Latest

A split image of Marianne Lake and Jamie Dimon, with JPMorgan Chase headquarters in the background, suggesting a CEO succession scenario.
PoliticsMay 29, 20263 min read

Marianne Lake for JPM CEO: The Market's Giving Her a Shot, I'm Watching Closely

Kalshi traders are giving Marianne Lake a 44% chance to succeed Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO, and I've got some thoughts on why that number feels a little low.

Odds:Yes 44%No 56%
A split image of Joel and Ellie from The Last of Us, with a calendar in the background showing dates leading up to 2028, symbolizing the release date prediction.
EntertainmentMay 28, 20263 min read

My take on 'The Last of Us' Season 3: Is 78% too optimistic?

Bettors give 'The Last of Us' Season 3 a 78% chance of dropping by January 2028, but I'm not entirely convinced.

Odds:Yes 74%No 26%
Image for Verve-102's 82% Approval Odds: Am I Missing Something?
TechMay 28, 20263 min read

Verve-102's 82% Approval Odds: Am I Missing Something?

Kalshi bettors are giving Verve-102 an 82% chance of FDA approval by 2035, but I'm looking closely at the early-stage data and thinking that number might be a bit optimistic.

Odds:Yes 81%No 19%
A vibrant image combining elements of Harry Styles' album art with the Grand Theft Auto 6 logo and a vintage-style radio.
EntertainmentMay 27, 20263 min read

Harry Styles on GTA 6 Radio: Is 29% a Bet on Pop or a Rockstar Misread?

I'm looking at the Kalshi market for Harry Styles on the GTA 6 radio, and the 29% 'Yes' price has me really thinking about Rockstar's unique soundtrack choices.

Odds:Yes 29%No 71%
A stylized clock face with '2030' prominently displayed, superimposed over a blurred image of a news magazine cover, hinting at the passage of time and future recognition.
PoliticsMay 27, 20263 min read

Time's Person of the Decade: Is the Market Underestimating the Unknown?

A market gives a 22% chance for a specific figure to be named Time's Person of the Decade, but I see a lot of unpredictability ahead.

Odds:Yes 17%No 83%
A young baseball player, Ethan Holliday, mid-swing during a game, with a blurred baseball stadium in the background.
SportsMay 26, 20263 min read

Ethan Holliday's MLB Debut: Is 52% YES an Absolute Steal?

I'm looking at Kalshi's market on Ethan Holliday's MLB debut, and the current 52% YES price feels surprisingly low for a prospect with his pedigree and timeline.

Odds:Yes 52%No 48%

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Politics

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Image for AGI Before 2027? The Market Says 13% – I'm Not So Sure.
PoliticsMay 29, 20264 min read

AGI Before 2027? The Market Says 13% – I'm Not So Sure.

A Kalshi market gives Artificial General Intelligence a 13% chance of being announced by 2027, and I think that's wildly optimistic.

Odds:Yes 13%No 87%
A split image of Marianne Lake and Jamie Dimon, with JPMorgan Chase headquarters in the background, suggesting a CEO succession scenario.
PoliticsMay 29, 20263 min read

Marianne Lake for JPM CEO: The Market's Giving Her a Shot, I'm Watching Closely

Kalshi traders are giving Marianne Lake a 44% chance to succeed Jamie Dimon as JPMorgan CEO, and I've got some thoughts on why that number feels a little low.

Odds:Yes 44%No 56%
A stylized clock face with '2030' prominently displayed, superimposed over a blurred image of a news magazine cover, hinting at the passage of time and future recognition.
PoliticsMay 27, 20263 min read

Time's Person of the Decade: Is the Market Underestimating the Unknown?

A market gives a 22% chance for a specific figure to be named Time's Person of the Decade, but I see a lot of unpredictability ahead.

Odds:Yes 17%No 83%

Economics

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A chart showing an upward trend in unemployment figures, with a stark visual of economic indicators.
EconomicsMay 22, 20263 min read

Unemployment's Long Shadow: Why 85% Predicts a 5.5% Peak

I've been watching this Kalshi market on unemployment and the 85% 'Yes' price is screaming a message I think many of us need to hear.

Odds:Yes 79%No 21%
A chart showing historical unemployment rates over time with an upward trend
EconomicsMay 18, 20263 min read

Unemployment Before 2030: Why 60% YES Might Still Be Underpriced

Prediction markets are giving unemployment a 60% chance of hitting an elevated level before 2030, and I think that number might be a steal.

Odds:Yes 54%No 46%
A chart showing a historical US unemployment rate trend with a sharp upward spike, indicating a recession or crisis.
EconomicsMay 16, 20263 min read

Is 3% Too Low for a Decade of Unemployment Risk?

I'm staring at a Kalshi market right now, and frankly, its 3% 'YES' price for high unemployment before 2030 is making me scratch my head.

Odds:Yes 10%No 90%

Finance

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A split image showing the logos of Deel and Rippling, with a stylized finish line in the background, representing a race to IPO.
FinanceMar 26, 20264 min read

Deel vs. Rippling IPO: Why the Crowd Is So Sure About Rippling

Kalshi traders are giving Rippling a massive 74% chance to IPO before Deel, and I’m digging into why the market has such strong conviction on this enterprise software showdown.

Odds:Yes 21%No 79%
Image for My Take on Deel vs. Rippling: The Market is Speaking Loudly, But Is It Right?
FinanceMar 26, 20264 min read

My Take on Deel vs. Rippling: The Market is Speaking Loudly, But Is It Right?

The Kalshi market has a strong opinion on whether Deel or Rippling will IPO first, but I'm looking at the nuances behind the numbers.

Odds:Yes 73%No 27%
Image for Ramp vs. Brex: The Market Is Wildly Confident. Am I?
FinanceMar 26, 20264 min read

Ramp vs. Brex: The Market Is Wildly Confident. Am I?

A Kalshi market betting on whether Ramp or Brex will IPO first is showing an astonishing 85% chance for Ramp, and I'm here to tell you why that number caught my eye.

Odds:Yes 85%No 15%

Tech

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Image for Verve-102's 82% Approval Odds: Am I Missing Something?
TechMay 28, 20263 min read

Verve-102's 82% Approval Odds: Am I Missing Something?

Kalshi bettors are giving Verve-102 an 82% chance of FDA approval by 2035, but I'm looking closely at the early-stage data and thinking that number might be a bit optimistic.

Odds:Yes 81%No 19%
Image for MDMA for PTSD: Why Kalshi's 54% 'Yes' Has Me Scratching My Head
TechMay 24, 20263 min read

MDMA for PTSD: Why Kalshi's 54% 'Yes' Has Me Scratching My Head

I'm looking at Kalshi's market on MDMA approval for PTSD and I can't shake the feeling that the current 54% 'Yes' price is missing some major recent developments.

Odds:Yes 49%No 51%
An illustration of a futuristic nuclear fusion reactor, with plasma glowing brightly at its core, surrounded by complex machinery. Focus on both the scientific wonder and the engineering challenge.
TechApr 20, 20263 min read

Fusion by 2035? My Take on Kalshi's Ambitious Tech Bet

I'm looking at Kalshi's market on nuclear fusion, and while the 48% chance for achievement by 2035 feels bold, I think the crowd might be underestimating the monumental challenges ahead.

Odds:Yes 48%No 52%

Sports

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A young baseball player, Ethan Holliday, mid-swing during a game, with a blurred baseball stadium in the background.
SportsMay 26, 20263 min read

Ethan Holliday's MLB Debut: Is 52% YES an Absolute Steal?

I'm looking at Kalshi's market on Ethan Holliday's MLB debut, and the current 52% YES price feels surprisingly low for a prospect with his pedigree and timeline.

Odds:Yes 52%No 48%
A young baseball pitcher in a dynamic throwing motion on a professional mound, perhaps with a Seattle Mariners logo faintly visible, representing the prospect Seth Hernandez.
SportsMay 19, 20263 min read

Is Kalshi Overpricing Seth Hernandez's MLB Dream?

A staggering 84% on Kalshi says Seth Hernandez will play in the MLB by 2029, but I'm looking at that 16% 'NO' with a lot of curiosity.

Odds:Yes 83%No 17%
An overhead shot of Max Verstappen driving his Red Bull F1 car on a race track, with a slightly blurred background to emphasize speed.
SportsMay 9, 20264 min read

Verstappen's Shock Retirement? Kalshi Says 51% Chance Before 2028

I'm watching a fascinating Kalshi market where bettors believe Max Verstappen has a 51% chance of retiring before the 2028 F1 season.

Odds:Yes 51%No 49%

World

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A graph showing a steep upward trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration over time, with a projected line extending towards 2030.
WorldMay 3, 20263 min read

CO2 by 2030: Is the Market Seriously Underestimating Climate Momentum?

I'm looking at Kalshi's CO2 market, and the current 38% 'YES' price for rising concentrations before 2030 feels surprisingly low given recent trends.

Odds:Yes 31%No 69%
A graph showing a steep upward trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration over time, with a small red 'X' marking the year 2030 on the timeline.
WorldMay 1, 20263 min read

A 90% Bet on a Bleaker Future: My Take on CO2 Levels

I'm looking at a prediction market that gives a 90% chance of CO2 concentrations getting 'bad' before 2030, and it's a grim, yet entirely rational, reflection of our path.

Odds:Yes 86%No 14%
Image for My Gut Says Kalshi's CO2 Market Is Seriously Underpricing Climate Risk
WorldApr 26, 20263 min read

My Gut Says Kalshi's CO2 Market Is Seriously Underpricing Climate Risk

I'm looking at Kalshi's CO2 market, and the crowd's 14% chance of 'bad' concentrations by 2030 feels wildly optimistic to me.

Odds:Yes 14%No 86%

Entertainment

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A split image of Joel and Ellie from The Last of Us, with a calendar in the background showing dates leading up to 2028, symbolizing the release date prediction.
EntertainmentMay 28, 20263 min read

My take on 'The Last of Us' Season 3: Is 78% too optimistic?

Bettors give 'The Last of Us' Season 3 a 78% chance of dropping by January 2028, but I'm not entirely convinced.

Odds:Yes 74%No 26%
A vibrant image combining elements of Harry Styles' album art with the Grand Theft Auto 6 logo and a vintage-style radio.
EntertainmentMay 27, 20263 min read

Harry Styles on GTA 6 Radio: Is 29% a Bet on Pop or a Rockstar Misread?

I'm looking at the Kalshi market for Harry Styles on the GTA 6 radio, and the 29% 'Yes' price has me really thinking about Rockstar's unique soundtrack choices.

Odds:Yes 29%No 71%
Beyoncé in a dramatic, expressive pose, perhaps with a subtle halo effect or light reminiscent of spiritual imagery, set against a stage or abstract background.
EntertainmentMay 26, 20264 min read

Beyoncé's Next Act: Why 25% for a Gospel Album Feels Off

I'm looking at Kalshi market odds for Beyoncé's next album charting as Gospel, and honestly, the 25% chance just doesn't sit right with me.

Odds:Yes 17%No 83%

Climate & Weather

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A stylized graphic showing different energy sources (oil, natural gas, coal, solar, wind) represented by varying proportions, with fossil fuels still dominant, but renewables growing, perhaps with a 2030 year overlay.
Climate & WeatherMay 14, 20264 min read

2030 Energy Mix: Why the Crowd Bets Against a Renewable Takeover

I'm looking at a Kalshi market asking what will be the largest source of global primary energy by 2030, where the 'YES' side sits at a mere 16%.

Odds:Yes 11%No 89%
Electric vehicles charging at a futuristic station, with a line graph showing market share growth.
Climate & WeatherApr 28, 20263 min read

My Take: Why Kalshi Gives EVs an 86% Shot at 10%+ Market Share by 2030

Kalshi bettors are giving an 86% chance to EVs capturing over 10% of the market by 2030, but I'm looking at the nuances behind that seemingly confident number.

Odds:Yes 85%No 15%
A vibrant green European Union flag with wind turbines and solar panels in the background, symbolizing climate goals.
Climate & WeatherApr 22, 20263 min read

EU Climate Goals: Are We Underestimating Europe's Resolve?

Kalshi traders are leaning 'No' on the EU hitting its 2030 climate goals, and I'm here to tell you why I think that's a mistake.

Odds:Yes 42%No 58%

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