Will the FDA approve VERVE-102 before Jan 1, 2030?
Fifty-eight percent. That’s the number that caught my eye this morning, sitting there on Kalshi. It’s for a market asking, "Will the FDA approve VERVE-102 before Jan 1, 2030?" My first thought was, oh, that’s a pretty confident bet for a biotech approval nearly six years out. On the surface, the market implies that people think it’s more likely than not that this gene-editing therapy will get the green light from the FDA.
But then I dug a little deeper, as I always do. And that’s where things get really interesting, because while the YES side is priced at a seemingly robust 58% (meaning the market thinks there’s a 58% chance of approval), and the NO side at 42%, there’s a crucial detail hiding in plain sight that completely changes my read on this. It’s a detail you absolutely cannot ignore if you want to understand what's *really* going on in this market.
Here’s the thing you need to know: the market for VERVE-102 has exactly 0 contracts of open interest. Zero. Nada. While 148 contracts have traded hands since the market opened, implying some past activity, there is currently no money on the line. Nobody is holding a position right now. To me, that makes the 58% YES price a bit of a ghost. It’s where the last trade happened, sure, but it doesn't represent any active conviction. It's like looking at a stock's last traded price from weeks ago when no one currently owns it. It tells you nothing about where people are willing to bet *today*.
This is a gene-editing therapy, VERVE-102, designed to permanently lower LDL-C, or 'bad' cholesterol, by inactivating the PCSK9 gene. Sounds incredibly promising, right? And it very well could be. But FDA approval for novel therapies, especially gene-editing ones, is a long, winding, and incredibly risky road. You’ve got to go through Phase 1, Phase 2, and Phase 3 clinical trials, all while navigating manufacturing complexities and proving long-term safety and efficacy. Many, many promising drugs stumble and fall at various stages.
The market category here is 'tech,' which I suppose makes sense given the innovative gene-editing aspect, but in my head, this is pure biotech. And biotech is inherently volatile. Just because a technology is cool doesn't mean it sails through regulatory hurdles. The deadline of January 1, 2030, gives Verve Therapeutics plenty of time, which is a positive. But it also gives plenty of time for trials to hit snags, for new competitors to emerge, or for safety concerns to arise. Six years is an eternity in drug development.
So, when I look at that 58% YES price, my instinct, usually honed by watching crowd wisdom, is completely undermined by the zero open interest. It's not a crowd expressing its wisdom; it's a historical data point that lacks current backing. If I were putting my money down, I wouldn't trust that 58% price one bit. In fact, if I were forced to ignore the zero open interest and base a bet solely on the nature of the challenge (novel gene therapy, long regulatory path), my gut would lean towards the 42% NO. Biotech is tough, and the default outcome for most experimental therapies is failure to reach market.
What would it take for me to take that 58% YES seriously? I'd need to see some real open interest build up. I’d want to see money actually being committed to that conviction. A few hundred or even a few thousand contracts in open interest would signal that people are actively betting on this, and then that 58% would start to mean something. Until then, I'm watching this market with a healthy dose of skepticism. The price might look confident, but the actual activity tells me it's effectively an empty room. Keep an eye on that open interest, because that's where the truth of this market will eventually emerge.
