Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
I've been watching a Kalshi market that's got me scratching my head a bit, and I just had to share my thoughts with you. It asks, "Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?" Right now, the 'YES' side is trading at 17%, which means bettors are giving him about a one-in-six chance of ascending to the very top. The 'NO' side, conversely, is at a solid 83%. My first reaction? Seventeen percent feels surprisingly robust for what I see as an extremely long shot, especially when you dig into the nuances of Chinese elite politics.
This isn't a market that's just popped up; it's been active for a while, and it has seen some action. We're looking at a trading volume of 13,419 contracts, which isn't a frenzy, but it shows a decent amount of engagement. There are 2,188 contracts still open, meaning people have real money on the line, betting on a future that's more than two decades away. That long timeline, stretching all the way to January 1, 2045, is absolutely crucial here, and it's where I think some market participants might be missing a few beats.
So, let's talk about Li Qiang himself. As you probably know, he's currently the Premier of China. That's a huge job, make no mistake – he's effectively running the government's day-to-day operations and overseeing the economy. He's also a close ally of current paramount leader Xi Jinping, having served as his chief of staff when Xi was the party boss in Zhejiang. This connection certainly helped him rise through the ranks, eventually landing him in the Politburo Standing Committee and then the premiership. On paper, he's one of the most powerful people in China. But here's the thing you need to know about the CCP's structure: the Premier isn't 'the leader' in the sense the market implies. The General Secretary of the CCP (and usually the President of the PRC) holds that ultimate power. Historically, since Deng Xiaoping, Premiers haven't typically transitioned into the role of General Secretary. Leaders like Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao came from other provincial party secretary roles before taking the top job. There isn't a clear precedent for a Premier to step up to the very pinnacle of party power.
The biggest hurdle, and the one that makes me lean so strongly towards 'NO,' is simply the passage of time. Li Qiang was born in 1959. If we're looking at the year 2045, he would be 86 years old. Think about that for a second. While current leader Xi Jinping has defied some informal age limits, the norm for retirement from the Politburo Standing Committee is 68, or perhaps 70 for some other senior roles. For Li Qiang to not only remain politically relevant but to ascend to the absolute top leadership position at 86 years old, after presumably many years out of the most direct line of succession (unless Xi were to step down and Li Qiang immediately replace him, which is also highly unlikely), feels like an astronomical long shot. I mean, he'd be nearly a decade older than Joe Biden is today, leading a country that, for all its revolutionary past, still values a degree of youthful vigor in its top leadership, even if Xi has tested those boundaries.
Furthermore, we can't ignore the elephant in the room: Xi Jinping's consolidation of power. He has effectively dismantled the previous norms of collective leadership and clear succession planning. There's no obvious successor being groomed, and Xi has shown every intention of staying in power for as long as he wishes, potentially well past the traditional retirement age. In this environment, the idea of a 'next leader' emerging through a conventional, predictable process, especially someone of Li Qiang's age in 2045, seems fanciful. The only way I could see Li Qiang becoming 'the leader' is if Xi steps down relatively soon and an unexpected, unprecedented succession occurs where Li Qiang leapfrogs many others, or if there's some truly cataclysmic event that reshapes the entire political hierarchy. Even then, the age factor remains a huge barrier.
So, my read on this 17% 'YES' price? I think it probably reflects a mix of factors. Maybe some bettors are hoping for a return to more predictable succession politics after Xi, where a current top official like the Premier might be considered. Perhaps others are just taking a long-shot bet on a highly unpredictable future, banking on some unforeseen Black Swan event. But for me, looking at the historical patterns of CCP leadership, the informal age limits, and the current political realities under Xi Jinping, that 17% feels incredibly high. If you asked me where I'd put my money, it would be a firm 'NO,' and I'd be quite surprised if the market isn't significantly lower on this closer to the resolution date. This is one of those markets where I think the crowd might be giving a little too much credit to a very remote possibility.
