Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice?
You know, sometimes a Kalshi market makes me do a double-take, not necessarily because of the odds themselves, but because of the sheer, audacious timeline involved. Today, for me, that's the market asking, 'Will Ryan Gosling be casted in the next Miami Vice?' I mean, Gosling? Miami Vice? And a market that doesn't close until January 1, 2035?
I've been watching this one with a raised eyebrow, truly. The YES side is currently trading at a mere 12%, meaning the collective wisdom of the crowd gives it only a 1-in-8 chance of happening. The NO side, conversely, is sitting pretty at 86%. When I first saw those numbers, my immediate thought wasn't 'wow, people don't think Gosling is right for it,' it was 'wow, people really understand how impossibly difficult it is to predict anything with certainty over a decade out.'
And honestly, who can blame them for that 86% NO? Let's zoom in on that closing date: January 1, 2035. Think about what that means. We're talking over eleven years from now. In Hollywood years, that's like several geological epochs. Actors' careers shift dramatically, studios are bought and sold, entire franchises get rebooted, flounder, and are forgotten. Even the very concept of 'the next Miami Vice' is speculative. Will there even be a next 'Miami Vice' by then? And if so, will it be a big-budget film, a prestige TV series, or some obscure streaming reboot?
With over 3,143 contracts already traded and 1,438 still holding open interest, this isn't some niche, forgotten market. People are actually putting real money down on whether Gosling will don pastel suits and drive a hypothetical Ferrari in a hypothetical reboot over a decade from now. That, to me, is fascinating in itself. It shows a genuine engagement with a very long-term, high-uncertainty proposition.
Here's the thing you need to know about my read on this: it's less about Ryan Gosling's undeniable talent or his perfect aesthetic for a stylish 80s throwback, and much more about the relentless march of time. Gosling is 43 right now. By January 2035, he'll be 54. While that's certainly not 'old' by any stretch, it changes the dynamic for a show historically centered on younger, edgier, often brash detectives like Sonny Crockett and Rico Tubbs. Would he be playing one of the leads, or perhaps a more grizzled, veteran mentor character? The market simply asks if he'll be 'casted in,' which leaves a lot of room. But still, the typical image of a 'Miami Vice' protagonist skews younger.
I also think about Gosling's career trajectory. He's coming off massive success with Barbie, cementing his status as a bona fide movie star who can draw audiences globally. Would a 'Miami Vice' reboot, by 2035, be a project that aligns with his likely established A-list career? Or would he be looking for something else entirely? A lot of top-tier talent often avoids reboots unless the script is truly phenomenal and the director is someone they're desperate to work with. There are just too many variables.
So, where would I put my money? If I were entering this market today, I'd be leaning heavily into that 86% NO, perhaps even arguing it should be higher. The probability of any single actor being cast in a specific, unannounced project more than a decade in the future, with all the career shifts, life changes, and industry upheavals that come with that kind of time, feels incredibly slim. This isn't a knock on Gosling; it's a testament to the chaos of predicting the future, especially in entertainment. That 12% YES isn't a bet on Gosling's suitability; it feels more like a bet on blind luck, or perhaps, a very fervent wish from a small but hopeful segment of the market.
