Will Glen Powell be casted in the next Miami Vice?
Alright, let's talk about Glen Powell. Specifically, let's talk about the Kalshi market asking: Will Glen Powell be cast in the next Miami Vice? When I first saw the current YES price sitting at 36%, my immediate thought was, "Really? That high?" And then I looked at the NO side, which is at 65%, bringing the total to a slightly over-indexed 101% – a common sight in these markets, reflecting the bid/ask spread and general trading dynamics.
For those of you just dipping your toes into the prediction market waters, what that 36% YES means is that traders, collectively, are currently betting there's about a one-in-three chance Powell lands a role in whatever the next iteration of Miami Vice turns out to be. The 65% NO means they think it's almost a two-thirds chance he won't. And I'll tell you, my gut reaction is that the NO side feels like the safer bet here, despite Powell's undeniable momentum right now.
Why do I say that? Well, let's start with the obvious: this market closes on January 1, 2035. Yes, you read that right. 2035. That's a full decade away. A lot, and I mean a lot, can happen in Hollywood over ten years. Careers ebb and flow, projects get announced and then quietly die, and the entire landscape of entertainment can shift dramatically. Think about who was a massive star in 2014 versus today. It's a different world.
Now, I get why people are bullish on Powell. The guy is red-hot. His performance in Top Gun: Maverick reminded everyone what a charismatic screen presence he is, and then Anyone But You proved he can absolutely carry a rom-com. He's got that classic movie star vibe, a bit of a throwback, which would certainly fit the slick, cool aesthetic of Miami Vice. He's actively looking for interesting projects, and a high-profile reboot or continuation of an iconic franchise would be right up his alley. So, if a Miami Vice project was announced tomorrow and casting began next month, I could absolutely see that 36% being a very reasonable, even conservative, estimate.
But we're not talking about tomorrow. We're talking about anytime between now and 2035. Will there even be a "next Miami Vice" that reaches the casting stage? Hollywood's littered with announced projects that never see the light of day. And even if it does, will Glen Powell still be the right fit, or even interested, a decade from now? He could be an Oscar winner by then, or he could be focused on directing, or he could simply be in a different phase of his career where Miami Vice isn't the move. That 36% feels less like a probability and more like a reflection of his current popularity projected onto a very distant, hazy future.
The market activity itself is interesting, though not overwhelmingly so for such a long-dated question. We've seen 5,465 contracts traded, with 2,162 contracts currently open. That's a decent amount of money putting opinions on the line, showing there's real conviction on both sides, but it's not a frenzy. It tells me that while people are definitely watching Powell's career trajectory, this isn't a market that's attracting massive, immediate capital flows. It's more of a steady simmer.
Here's what I'm thinking: betting YES here is essentially betting on a confluence of factors that are highly uncertain. You're betting that a new Miami Vice project gets off the ground, that it gets off the ground within the next decade, that Glen Powell is still a top-tier star in a position to be cast in it, and that he actually accepts the role. Each of those steps introduces significant risk. Betting NO, on the other hand, only requires one of those links in the chain to break. He doesn't get cast for any number of reasons: the project never happens, he's too big, he's not big enough, he's busy, he's aged out of the role, or the producers go in a different direction entirely.
If you're asking me where I'd put my money, I'm leaning heavily towards the NO side. The 65% feels like it's accounting for the immense uncertainty of a ten-year timeline. While Glen Powell is absolutely the kind of actor who *could* be in a new Miami Vice, the sheer passage of time and the unpredictable nature of Hollywood make any specific casting a distant dream, not a likely outcome. It's a fun market to watch, for sure, and I'll be curious to see how those odds fluctuate as 2035 slowly approaches, but for now, I'm betting against the crystal ball on this one. The smart money, I think, recognizes just how many moving parts are involved.
